Feb. 5th, 2011

purejuice: (Default)
OK, this is what I think is going down. Mubarak's party, much more concerned with its prestige, will in the person of Suleiman and the army cling to power making tiny concessions, such as stepdown as chairman of the party by Uday Mubarak, while busting the balls of the Muslim Brotherhood, whom they invaded Friday, and collaring and imprisoning the under-30 leaders of the April 6 Movement like Amr Ezz until they're certain there will be no more.

The army, in the person of Field Marshal Mohamed Tantawi, is the democratized, technically-sophisticated, secular, U.S.-financed power, in which all Egyptian men serve, which has both Egypt and the operative in charge, Suleiman, by the balls. Our sec of defense Gates, is reportedly on the phone every day with Tantawi, and I think this is the crucial connection. Forty billion I think is the figure Gates gives Tantawi annually (mmmm, not possible. It's more like $35 billion since the Camp David accords). And Egypt's officer class, apparently all U.S.-educated, are utterly the bitches of the Pentagon junket. Nothing like dangling flyboy lessons in front of a boy (n.b., Alexander Onassis, JFK Jr., Princes Charles, Andrew, William, Harry, their dead cousin Prince William of Gloucester, Saudi Prince Bandar, et al).

The NYT reports Suleiman, a former military guy, and Tantawi, are the operatives negotiating face-saving exit scenarios with Hosni -- such as a retreat to his villa or to medical examinations in Germany. It is horrific to think that something so frivolous is keeping Hosni in power. The hidden agenda, I think, is the round up and imprisonment of the usual suspects and the next, secular, social-networked generation of April 6 movement activists. I am concerned that the army was photographed Friday tearing down the anti-government protesters barricades on Tahrir, as seen in pic #1 on page one the web edition of today's NYT.

The uncharted power in these negotiations is the Arab League, in the person of possible presidential candidate Amr Moussa -- "the most popular political figure in Egypt" (see face-saving link above) -- at whose office the group negotiating Hosni's departure met Friday.

Suleiman and Tantawi (and possibly Gates?) will not let Hosni depart until all the leaders of the revolution, including the bros, are behind bars.

Then elections in September can take place as scheduled. My $40 billion is on Amr Moussa. And, I submit, yours is too. The AP reports Moussa is considering a run. The same tiny piece reports, as I suspected, that Moussa believes "any new government in Egypt 'cannot ignore the Muslim Brotherhood,' the country's largest opposition group."

I don't think this is an untenable or too very immoral position to support. Though if I were Amr Moussa, I'd let the bros remain in place as the pacifists and physicians and the old wise disciplined heads -- my peers -- among the protesters. I would co-opt them utterly. Let's watch and see if Amr Moussa is photographed in the near future with the bros.


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January 2012


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